Ever since I started this journey, going from indie builder to running a VC-backed startup, I get asked the same question a lot. What's the best thing someone can do to start down this path?
I usually give a few pieces of tactical advice. But the underlying message is always the same.
Expand your surface area for luck.
Here's the thing. It's incredibly hard to predict or force the world to be a certain way. You can't make things happen just by trying harder or wanting it more. So much of what determines whether something works sits completely outside your control.
But what you can do is increase the potential for outside forces in the world to work in your favor. You have total control over that. You can make it far more likely that good things happen to you.
Think of it like this. You're trying to increase the number of places lightning could strike. Then you stand under more of them, for longer.
A little demo
Increase the number of risky bets to see how volume changes expected outcomes
The Four Surfaces
1. Time
This is why companies raise money. It's not just to build, but to give things time to materialize.
That offhand conversation at a conference? It took three months to turn into anything. A tweet I posted became a warm intro six weeks later. I just never knew.
Even my "sudden" success was years in the making. I had to create time. Give myself runway. Multiple times.
2. People
I don't like the word networking. It's just sharing what you're doing and helping people however you can.
So many things have happened to me in the last few years simply because I told somebody what I was working on. They helped me out. Or connected me with my first investor. It cost them almost nothing.
Most of those conversations turned into nothing. But a handful led to massive phase changes in my journey. I just never knew which ones would lead to that phase change.
3. Distribution
Yeah, I know. You hear this constantly in startup land. But there's a reason.
We added our project to an "awesome" list once without thinking much about it. Weeks later, a customer found us there and said, "I looked through all the options and you're the only one doing exactly what I needed." We couldn't have predicted that. Who knows how many people scrolled right past. But he found us.
Share your work in public. It's a massive surface area for luck.
4. The Edge of Knowledge
Going to the edge of what people are doing today often looks like a complete waste of time. Why are you spending time on this thing that looks like a toy?
But along that edge is where there's so much opportunity. Things that are tried and true don't give you outsized returns. They're available to everybody. Already optimized to death.
Build toys. Try prototypes. Do things that don't scale.
Why you haven't expanded your surface area*
*already
Other people seem more lucky than you...
People who look "consistently lucky" aren't actually luckier. They've just built more surface area. Their previous wins expanded their distribution. Those wins extended their runway. More time unlocked more space to experiment.
Each lucky break widens the surface for the next one. It compounds.
If you're just starting out...it will take time to build that kind of surface area.
You're afraid of failure
I was terrified to post my first tweets. Worried people would think I didn't know what I was talking about. That fear kept me from creating surface area for years.
But the surface you don't create is the only guaranteed miss.
You're throwing spaghetti at the wall
And look, this isn't about being thoughtless. Don't just throw content everywhere. Be deliberate about who you talk to, where you show up, what you build.
You're overthinking it
Just don't wait for the perfect moment or the perfect strategy. There are no shortcuts. If they existed, people would be using them, not selling them to you.
Do this long enough, and probabilities start tilting your way.